| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | West Virginia | 24-31 | 1449.5 | -42.9 | 1406.6 | 21.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Fordham | 45-7 | 1406.6 | +40.6 | 1447.3 | 87.9% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Delaware | 14-22 | 1447.3 | +18.7 | 1466.0 | 44.1% |
| 4 | Sep 24 2026 | L | Liberty | 17-34 | 1466.0 | -41.0 | 1424.9 | 44.6% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Georgia Southern | 24-31 | 1424.9 | -1.4 | 1423.6 | 37.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Marshall | 27-21 | 1423.6 | +20.1 | 1443.7 | 44.9% |