| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Virginia | 7-48 | 1512.3 | -132.8 | 1379.5 | 38.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Charleston Southern | 13-0 | 1379.5 | -13.0 | 1366.5 | 83.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | East Carolina | 0-38 | 1366.5 | -71.1 | 1295.4 | 18.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | South Alabama | 38-20 | 1295.4 | +96.1 | 1391.5 | 19.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 7-47 | 1403.9 | -49.1 | 1354.8 | 12.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 23-8 | 1354.8 | +14.0 | 1368.8 | 55.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | App State | 45-37 | 1368.8 | +17.1 | 1385.9 | 41.1% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | W | Marshall | 44-27 | 1384.3 | +57.4 | 1441.7 | 21.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Georgia State | 40-27 | 1441.7 | +0.6 | 1442.3 | 71.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 40-45 | 1442.3 | +0.6 | 1442.9 | 47.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Carolina | 7-51 | 1442.9 | -37.9 | 1405.0 | 9.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-59 | 1405.0 | -41.9 | 1363.1 | 8.0% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-23 | 1373.8 | -2.6 | 1371.2 | 36.3% |